The Fermi Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the Interstellar Transportation Bandwidth

If you like mind bending futurism regarding the re-wilding and population of vast stellar distances, you might enjoy some of the below.

The Paper
Conversation #1
Conversation #2

Taken from Abstract:

It has been widely acknowledged that self-replicating space-probes (SRPs) could explore the galaxy very quickly relative to the age of the galaxy. An obvious implication is that SRPs produced by extraterrestrial civilizations should have arrived in our solar system millions of years ago, and furthermore, that new probes from an ever-arising supply of civilizations ought to be arriving on a constant basis. The lack of observations of such probes underlies a frequently cited variation of the Fermi Paradox. We believe that a predilection for SETI-optimistic theories has deterred consideration of incompatible theories. Notably, SRPs have virtually disappeared from the literature. In this paper, we consider the most common arguments against SRPs and find those arguments lacking. By extension, we find recent models of galactic exploration which explicitly exclude SRPs to be unfairly handicapped and unlikely to represent natural scenarios.

We also consider several other models that seek to explain the Fermi Paradox, most notably percolation theory and two societal collapse theories. In the former case, we find that it imposes unnatural assumptions which likely render it unrealistic. In the latter case, we present a new theory of interstellar transportation bandwidth which calls into question the validity of societal-collapse theories.

Finally, we go over our thoughts on how to design future SETI programs which take the conclusions of this paper into account to maximize the chance of detection.

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MY THOUGHTS:

I think the real question about intelligent life “out there” in the universe isn’t about whether it exists, or if we can communicate with them – rather, it’s a question of timing. A large, obviously finite, intelligent beings on millions of planets in millions of galaxies will *probably* exist, but the likelihood of all being at a different time (let alone too far apart) is a real thing to consider. I know, with the relative age of the universe, you would have to figure out whether there has been enough time for multiple galaxies to form in that 15 billion years, that *also* developed solar systems with planets that host a wide range of potential living conditions for a wide range of potential beings. The challenge is to get to the point of being intelligent lifeforms that are capable of manipulating their environment… in hopes of that event, certain logical steps have to take place – higher brain function of some sort has to develop, which would *suggest* a central nervous system of some sort, etc. If the nature of the universe’s existence is that it has only *recently* become hospitable for evolved intelligent lifeforms to exist, then it would be just about this cosmic moment in time that intelligent life could reach out to one another. Again, there are a number of logical leaps here – there may be cultures of people that may not wish to contact others, or may not be evolved to the point of technological innovation.

To me, the real issue is the timing of it all. Generally accepted knowledge:

The Earth is about 4.1 billion years old.

Solar System is 4.5 billion years old.

The Universe is about 13.7 billion years old.

Depending on how long it took from the beginning to have universal conditions that might allow for life, there doesn’t seem to have been much time for beings to develop, and for all practical arguments, we are just at the beginning of time. Our inflationary model shows that the universe’s expansion has increased since 7.5 billion years after the big bang – we’re just starting to grow. Depending on how much dark energy exists out there, and the shape, we humans may have a very long role exploring. If Dyson’s Eternal Intelligence hypothesis is true, that is… it’s such a passionately humanistic and optimistic view. Could you imagine – fine tuned human controlled holographic parallel universes that we can project ourselves into? Or universes that we create and control that creates a stable place for life? I am emboldened, and stricken with mortal hope, when I think of these things. We truly are worthy of carrying on. Informing the future with our virtues as we evolve out of our petty weaknesses. Or, we must ask the question… how many other beings have doomed themselves prior to this awareness or attempt to reach out into the dark night sky? How many suffer a cataclysm that brings them back into a stone age (eruption or comet collision, for example) – all these questions are likely as important as our myopic and quizzical musings at interstellar distances. In fact, I just found this “essay” on the likelihood of necessary evolutionary steps to create intelligent life, noting the issue with the Fermi paradox is about evolution or biology, and not cosmology.

At least – according to those calculations in that one article on antipope.com – it looks like we really could communicate REALLY efficiently over large interstellar distances. It seems like we have both a fax and internet option, of sorts. I think – maybe. I am still figuring that crap out. Chunky reading for a quiet night. It’s good stuff tho.

Summing up, I am not so sure whether “are they out there” so much as whether we are at a place in “time” that is well before a massive amount of potential intelligent lifeforms – or if we have come a long time after others. We have found so many new planets that could be earth like and life supporting…. it’s crazy. But then again, maybe we are the only one in the apartment building. Maybe we’re just that special, and that lacking of self awareness. If we’re the first ones, the first self aware out here in the wild…. there are incredible implications of our role, our position. Are there custodians to the human race yet? If we’re the first foragers and explorers, we have a responsibility to pave the way for a connected (edit: but data safe) future.

It’s *obvious* – we are a very, very special, & very lucky in this moment in universal “history”. If there is one thing that is obvious – it’s that life, intelligent or otherwise, is not that common away from this tiny home (our lonely outer spiral arm).  Microbes may exist on Jupiter moons, but intelligent (and flawed) life is an amazing, momentous, unbelievable chance encounter with a cold reality that didn’t expect us.

I love this concept of the Re-Wilding. It’s Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot, but people are beginning to ponder the ethics and impact of all this. I think current societal issues are paramount, but if we don’t embrace our ultimate existence and timeframe here in the universe, we’re missing out on the ultimate and role of the human race in this universe.